Thread: This will be an ongoing thread covering 2020 House of Representatives and State Rep Election thread:

Last night, the GOP scored a landslide win in a special Texas House election that the Democrats predicted would swing to them and be a bellwether.

"In special Texas House election, Democrats bit off more than they could chew
Texas Democrats raised the stakes in their effort to flip a Republican House seat to their side in Fort Bend County. It was a long-shot, promoted as a promising opportunity. And they lost, big."

texastribune.org/2020/01/29/sp

Final results for Texas special:

Republican Gary Gates 58%

Democrat Eliz Markowitz 42%

Democrats are obsessed with the idea of turning Texas blue.

This destroys those hopes.

Numbers for previous recent elections for this district:

Trump, 2016 +10

Cruz, 2018 +3

Abbott +15

And this was an off year special without Trump on the ballot.

More on the Texas special

twitter.com/RRHElections/statu

This was yet another stunning failure for Beto O'Rourke, who followed his senate failure with a ludicrous failed presidential campaign.

This was his chance to become an activist for the Left and turn Texas blue.

He was the face of the campaign.

Now he has three failed political 'careers' in 15 months.

Perhaps a record

On topic for Texas - off-topic as it has to do with state polls, but the Texas special reflects this:

Texas match-ups for the White House.

twitter.com/Politics_Polls/sta

TEXAS

Trump 54% (+14)

Biden 40%
.
Trump 55% (+15)

Sanders 40%
.
Trump 56% (+18)

Warren 38%
.
Trump 56% (+20)

Buttigieg 36%

This poll may exaggerate, but even half of those leads would mean a landslide against every Democrat

Another GOP victory last night in a Georgia special election:

GOP won Georgia HD 171

GOP (two candidates) 66.7%
Dem 33.4%

Safe GOP seat - but a solid gain for the GOP over the last election - 59.2 in 2012

Winner is Joe Campbell

walb.com/2020/01/29/votes-are-

The sheer lunacy of the Left: this puff piece was written to promote O'Rourke's new 'venture'.

Before the Texas special GOP landslide, of course.

"He May Not Be a Candidate, but Beto O’Rourke is Rebuilding His Texas Organizing Machine for 2020

O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign was fueled by an organizing network of 20,000 volunteers. Can he harness that energy again without being on the ticket?"

The media worship of O'Rourke never stops.

They are determined to make him succeed.

But it's like training a dog to dance a waltz on two legs. He just keeps falling down.

texasobserver.org/beto-orourke

More of the ongoing thread covering 2020 House of Representatives and State Rep Election thread:

Excellent news for the GOP as ratings for 10 House of Representatives seats have changed inf favor of the Republicans on the leftist centerforpolitics site:

Mario Diaz-Balart (R, FL-25)
Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Brian Mast (R, FL-18) Likely to Safe Republican

Mike Bost (R, IL-12) Likely to Safe Republican

Tim Walberg (R, MI-7) Likely to Safe Republican

More ratings changes that benefit the GOP:

Pete Stauber (R, MN-8) Likely to Safe Republican

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D, TX-7) from Likely Lean Democratic, thanks to a strong candidate in Wesley Hunt (R) and the GOP victories in Texas recently.

WI-7 Special (Duffy, R) Likely to Safe Republican

Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) Tossup to Leans Republican

Dave Joyce (R, OH-14) Likely to safe Republican

Mike Kelly (R, PA-16) Likely to Safe Republican

This is all from left-wing Larry Sabato, who became known for his prediction of a Hillary landslide in 2016.

Almost all of his projections reflect a strong leftist bias and he underplays GOP strengths.

So it is always possible that the GOP's prospects are even better than he is saying here.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalb

For the first time, Sabato grudgingly and bitterly notes that there is a path for the GOP to take back the House.

Ongoing thread covering 2020 House of Representatives and State Rep Election thread:

Another GOP victory yesterday. Republicans have flipped a state house seat in Kentucky that had been held by Democrats for thirty years.

Richard White defeated Dem challenger Bill Redwine in a solid victory.

Richard White 4,750

Bill Redwine 3,731.

Follow

Prospects continue to improve for the GOP to flip the House.

Sean Parnell is running to defeat leftist Conor Lamb in PA

The Democrat candidates are running from the nominees and not only Sanders.

All the Dems oppose fracking, and that alone will destroy them in PA.

Parnell is on twitter with that message constantly.

twitter.com/SeanParnellUSA/sta

Ongoing thread covering 2020 House of Representatives and State Rep Election thread:

Conor Lamb, PA 17, supports Biden - who opposes fracking and is determined to destroy America's booming energy industry.

Parnell counters Lamb. These aggressive Republicans are a complete contrast with the passive, mild, often self-defeating Republicans of the past.

Parnell:

"@ConorLambPA
@JoeBiden
“Do you agree with this? If so, how would this effect our region?" recently said,
"We are gonna get rid of fossil fuels... they want to do the same thing I want to do. They want to phase out fossil fuels and we're gonna phase out fossil fuels"

House seat MN 07 is a potential pickup for the GOP.

Trump won the district 62-31.

Now Dem incumbent Colin Peterson is considering retirement.

He will likely make his decision after Super Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see whether Sanders' continued momentum will effect the decisions of other Dems to remain in congress.

MN 07 was already a strong potential pickup for the GOP even with Peterson running.

Michelle Fischbach, a former GOP state senator, is already a solid challenger and is doing well in fund-raising.

If Peterson doesn't run, it is highly likely to flip.

washingtonexaminer.com/news/ho

News on two more potential House pickups for the GOP:

Sanders' insane worship of Castro is gold for the GOP, even as Florida is becoming increasingly Republican.

Florida Democrats are in open panic and denouncing their own likely front runner.

Here are the comments from Donna Shalala, Clinton shill turned Florida member of congress for FL 27:

"I'm hoping that in the future, Senator Sanders will take time to speak to some of my constituents before he decides to sing the praises of a murderous tyrant like Fidel Castro. "

twitter.com/DonnaShalala/statu

Shalala flipped the GOP seat with a 6 point victory against a strong challenger, Maria Elvira Salazar.

The GOP will be a much stronger year for the GOP than 2018 and Shalala's panic is good news for a GOP flip.

Another FL seat that is in play is FL26.

Debbie Murcasel-Powell denounced Sanders' statements about Castro:

"As the first South American immigrant member of Congress who proudly represents thousands of Cuban Americans, I find Senator Bernie Sanders’ comments on Castro’s Cuba absolutely unacceptable."

Sanders is going to destroy the Democrats in FL. And it is still February.

More from Murcasel-Powell:

"The Castro regime murdered and jailed dissidents, and caused unspeakable harm to too many South Florida families.

To this day, it remains an authoritarian regime that oppresses its people, subverts the free press, and stifles a free society."

FL26 is another strong potential pickup for the GOP.

Like so many 2018 Dem victories, it was flipped with an extremely narrow margin of victory.

Murcasel-Powell won in 2018 with only 50.9% vs 49.1 for GOP incumbent Carlos Curbelo

All of the House Democrats in congress who are running in swing and red districts have to face the same insoluble dilemma in November.

They have to run against:

1)Donald Trump, the incumbent president during
2) An economic boom
3) Their own record of voting for the impeachment hoax, and, if he is the nominee,
4) Bernie Sanders, a lunatic socialist/Marxist Communist

And if Sanders is the nominee, they will have to run against their own nominee even in some blue districts

Ongoing thread covering 2020 Congress House of Representatives and State Rep Election thread:

Another seat that is definitely in play is TX#7.

The GOP has a strong contender for the seat. Wesley Hunt has been running for several months and already has the endorsement of the President.

twitter.com/WesleyHuntTX

The seat is currently held by Democrat Lizzie Fletcher.

Fletcher's TX #7 seat is 'endangered' according to the Houston Chronicle, as indeed, all red and swing state district Dems are 'endangered'.

She voted for impeachment.

"Within minutes of her casting it, the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is targeting her seat in 2020, issued a statement saying, “Lizzie Fletcher’s vote to impeach President Trump destroys any chance she has for re-election and shows Texas voters she’s exactly like the rest of the socialist Democrats.”

Fletcher defeated GOP incumbent John Culberson in 2018, 52.5% to 47.5%.

Now there is an excellent chance to flip the seat back to the GOP.

GOP Challenger Wesley Hunt is running a proactive campaign. This is what was lacking so often in GOP campaigns.

TX#7 Challenger Wesley Hunt is running on the narrative of hope and optimism that actually uses the past and transforms it.

"When my great-great-grandfather came to America, he worked the land bound by chains. My family went from slavery to West Point in just 5 generations and 2 weeks ago, this great-great-grandson of a slave was endorsed by the President of the United States of America."

twitter.com/WesleyHuntTX/statu

More from Wesley Hunt:

"My family's story is the story of America. It's the story of overcoming adversity, persevering and prospering. It's the story of working hard to provide a better life for your children.
Wesley Hunt
@WesleyHuntTX"
·

"That's the American Dream. I'm running for Congress to fight to keep that dream alive for my daughter and all of our children."

South Carolina SC#1 is another seat that the GOP has an excellent chance of flipping in November.

Dem. Joe Cunningham won the seat in 2018, flipping it for the Dems.

He won by a small margin. This was true of almost all Democrats who flipped seats in 2018.

This makes them uniquely vulnerable in this year's election.

2018 results:
Joe Cunningham (D) 50.6
Katie Arrington (R) 49.2

Cunningham was an outspoken advocate for impeachment.

However, he is now one of the supposedly 'moderate' Democrats who is openly denouncing Sanders.

"SC’s Joe Cunningham slams Bernie Sanders’ ‘socialism’ ahead of 2020 Democratic primary"

postandcourier.com/politics/sc

Show more

@timr

Please let it be so. Another place I have my eye on for relocation-Beaufort.

@timr
The Trump effect there.

Conor Lamb lied to his constituents, instead of doing what he said he was going to do back in 2018 he went head long into impeachment.

@redwhitebluedude

Lamb is a fraud. Now his twitter feed is littered with frightened comments about Sanders and his own party's support for fracking.

@timr He isn't the only one. All those Democrats who got elected in the House in 2018 are looking like total frauds.

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