"My theory, based on the fact that we have seen an...interesting...amount of military naval vessels as well as aircraft from the USA as well as other NATO nations hanging around Guam, the Marshall Islands, Okinawa, the Philippines, and South Korea over the past few months, is that Trump knew the CCP would move on Taiwan as soon as the waters allowed it (April-ish)."
Everyone should read the rest.
What you're saying makes tons of sense.
The Chinese have been lying for so long about their capabilities that it's not possible them to not believe themselves.
THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS.
It happened to the Russians on February 7, 2018, in Deir Ezzor Syria, when we inflicted 100 percent casualties on a 600-man Russian Mobile Detachment Combat Unit.
This is a combined-arms battalion based around three companies of motorized infantry.
Only two vehicles survived.
Nine out of 10 tanks and every artillery piece were destroyed.
The men who spoke to Moscow said that it was a trap.
The "Yankees" set them up.
"They sent their message," a voice said bitterly.
After steamrolling several defenseless countries, Putin though he was invincible.
Trump showed him that Putin remains in power at Trump's pleasure.
I sense a similar lesson in China's future.
But we're going to have lots of Pacific countries pitching in, as well as NATO.
They all want to be part of teaching China a lesson so that China stops messing with them.
People don't know this, but we have the same special relationship with Singapore that we do with the UK and Australia.
We've also helped the Taiwanese build up their forces so that they can punch FAR above their weight class.
And Taiwan has a special military relationship with Japan.
The Japanese have some of the most advanced armed forces in the world.
So does South Korea.
We have a clandestine relationship with Vietnam that allows us to base whomever and whatever we want there.
My guess is that like Russia, the Chinese will be allowed to save face, but they'll take a military pasting they'll never forget.
The Russian survivors of Deir Ezzor said that an entire infantry company of 120 men "died instantly."
How is that possible?
I couldn't tell you.
The Chinese will attempt an uprising in Taiwan, followed by an invasion.
There's no way maritime or aerial transports can get into Taiwan.
They'll be destroyed.
Same goes for bombers and ballistic missiles.
Whatever happens, the hardest hits will happen secretly.
Just like in Deir Ezzor.
I'm not worried in the slightest.
Nobody deserves defeat more than the CCP.
@ThomasWic Amen to that. They deserve what they get. Every bit of it. They tried to destroy us with the black swan virus. F them
1) I remember reading this article from CNN back in 2018: "Why you're seeing more of Japan's military."
"“You’re working on warning and surveillance activities, cooperating with allied countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand,” the Japanese Prime Minster told the troops assembled for the Japan Self-Defense Forces annual military review at Camp Asaka, just northwest of Tokyo."
2) "Japan surges new weapons, military roles to meet China’s rise"
"Japanese warships off Okinawa could soon carry ground troops as Tokyo keeps eyes on Beijing"
@ThomasWic 3) "Japanese military to receive new rifles for the first time since 1989"
"Japan opens central command HQ for ground troops"
4) "British Troops Train On Japanese Soil For First Time"
"Japan's New Island-Defending Marines Stormed a Beach With US, Aussie Troops"
"With Little Fanfare, Japan Just Changed the Way It Uses Its Military"
Japan, and its allies (including us), have been doing A LOT over the past few years preparing, and making the upgrades and changes.
I believe that Trump and his good friend Abe planned a massive upgrade to the JDF the second they were able to get on the horn with each other. I'm confident Abe would have tried to accomplish this with or without Trump, but Trump made this feat easy. Japan will shed this "defense force" malarkey in favor of a true military.
No one with even a passing familiarity with the threat of the CCP and two brain cells to rub together would argue with this decision.
Virtually all countries and cultures hold grudges. America is relatively unique in that we consider anything more than a few generations old to be "ancient."
I once asked an antique dealer in Ginza if a piece of fabric was "old," instead of asking what period it came from, because I was tired that day and my Japanese failed me. "No," the shopkeep replied with a shrug. "It's maybe only 300 years old."
An embarrassing, but illustrative experience.
Americans don't know what grudges are. We're just not old enough as a country. If something happened more than a generation or two ago, we consider it bad form to hold it against someone.
If we restricted that kind of thinking to American issues only, I might be less critical of my own people.
But many Americans assume the rest of the world is like us, in that grudges are seen as backward thinking.
Trump was an exception and a breath of fresh air.
If there's one thing I've learned in my travels, it's that being an American is both an asset and a liability.
Once I prove to foreigners that I'm not your typical American--that I take a long view of the world--things tend to go much smoother for me. I enjoy big picture thinking.
I just wish all of my countrymen and -women felt the same way, not just the most knowledgeable segment of Trump's following.
Thanks for the reply, oystergirl.
@justanothercorvid I'm a first generation American from Greek and English stock. My dad was born in raised in China and lived through the horrific Sino-Japanese War. That's why I brought it up, because people who live through things have a tendency not to forget and those who live in a culture "wronged" have a much longer memory. I appreciate your sharing and completely agree with you. @OneRandomGuy @ThomasWic
@Teneseo LOL I ain't from here technically so that is all on the old school Americans! My husband's family came over on the Mayflower and signed the compact though not a single family member in history EVER owned slaves. So, should THEY pay? Nope. NO one should! @justanothercorvid @OneRandomGuy @ThomasWic
Head of the snake, lopped off.
All the sweet sweet CCP $$ will stop instantly.
Could create a Global VACUM...destroying all CCP allies/minions.
The fallout could be a poetic REVEAL of everything.
What’s a stronger word for staggering?
We have been in this longer than we think IMO. I will never forget one cocid briefing (when Trump held them daily) that the military announced some real heavy naval deployment in Caribbean. Drugs they said. Why would we need destroyers for the cartels? What exactly were Pence and company up to? I hope one day we get to know.
China’s “Wolf Warrior Deplomacy” has become a Boxer Rebellion.
Emperor Xitler has turned himself into Empress Dowager CiXi.
Notice Trump never talks about the foreign interference with the 2020 election. Sidney Powell does and a couple others, but Trump does not.
@Ballerina5683 @ThomasWic And where are Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, the Queen and many others? I haven't heard much coming from any of them. Where's Jared Kushner? Where's Trump? Pompeo? Monkey Werx doesn't even mention Trump's missing TFR anymore. Pence popped up with Samaritan's Purse a couple of days ago. Maybe we just got used to seeing them but they've all gotten pretty silent and I think that's weird.
@seeker That sucks. Stay safe and stay sane!!!! ❤️
@Kat @ThomasWic Thank you, I should clarify.
Initially in November, Trump said “We caught them” and mentioned a few countries. This led many to believe he had his ducks in a row so to speak. We learned about the servers in Germany and Spain, however Trump dropped talking about foreign interference, and has focused on domestic interference.
Perhaps he is emphasizing the domestic part of the steal as a distraction (though 100% legit) from what is going on behind the scenes globally.
Actually, yep. I know.
Don't say I did not warn you.
Take a month to cool down.
@YMKYMFOI I enjoy your threads immensely and feel saddened and perplexed by the resulting tension in our QV family that seems to have escalated today.
LOL - sounds like a day in the life of a typical married man. There was one last Sunday according to my calendar.
In the speculation of financial markets world there are some who drive themselves batshit crazy trying to find active cycles. With the right algo's you can find hundreds of them. Plotted together on a chart they look like constellations, there are so many. It sounds like you fell victim to an active cycle of sorts...Duck.
@TerriC Not sure about the full moon but something is going on. Sorry to hear about your unpleasant encounter.
I agree and understand.
But I let it go because I know that all will be well.
Now some believe that to be sappy BS But I can handle that.
I've seen crap like this and maybe worse when I worked in the sewer of politics.
What I will stand on: Never, ever underestimate PDJT.
And one other liddle thing:
The Plagiarist and Prostitute will pay a big price; we just don't know when or how.
Nothing lasts forever, including this radical leftism.
@ThomasWic agreed! The CCP has been a menace to the world for far too long. I saw a post a couple of weeks ago on the date of marx’s death, it stated “on this day 138 years ago, Marx made his greatest accomplishment to mankind, he died.” I’d like to see his ideas die too.
@ThomasWic - I agree. I'm originally from Philippines and we experienced China's bullying when they illegally took Scarborough Shoal inside Phil. exclusive economic zone (even defied Hague tribunal ruling that China's imaginary 9-Dash Line crap which claims almost 90% of SCS is invalid). Even Pompeo said 9-Dash Line is a sham. The idiots even rammed our fishing boats with their maritime militia in 2019 to intimidate weak neighbors. Pres. Duterte is the only one with balls to stand against them.
@ThomasWic Well said, Thomas!
@ThomasWic i was just thinking if biden is in charge why doesn't he fix the microchip problem
I really enjoy reading your summations, always an education!
I wonder what arrows we really have in our quiver.
We developed the SR-71 in the 1960's. It still looks futuristic to me - the big brother of the B-2 perhaps. I wouldn't be surprised if we have kinetic projectiles deployed in space, the so called Rods of God, or whatever they call them. Or maybe lasers that take advantage of the particular nature of light, maybe we even call them Photon Torpedo's.
Oh what wonders we may have that most of us will never see.
@ThomasWic I know that my son (an 0311 in the USMC) deploys to Japan in a few months (deploys -- not just stationed).
He's been through Infantry and Security Forces schools and just came off of two years of Presidential Security (at 8th and I and then with WACA at JBAB).
I think your theory is 100% correct.
Thank you. We are proud of his service. We do wish he wasn't such a moron sometimes (as he's made some very dumb decisions lately), but I too was a complete moron at his age.
I gotta say: seeing his commendation for his POTUS service -- signed by DJT -- was one of the proudest moments of my life. Fortunately my boy is a rabid Trump supporter like I am, so as much as he complained during that time (Marines: professional complainers), he's proud of his service too.
Think too about capabilities and experience.
When was the last time the PRC successfully conducted an amphibious landing against an armed opponent?
Many of the early American and British amphibious operations (and some of the later ones) during WW2 went...badly. It took time, blood, and experience to become competent in such operations.
The PRC lacks all of this.
Thought, because the Kreigsmarine had zero experience in amphibious operations...Britain was never at a serious risk of being invaded in WW2. Even the Luftwaffe's paratroopers could not have held ground for long without cross-Channel support. Competence and capability in amphibious warfare is exceedingly rare.
Not to mention Vietnam already pasted China in '79.
China's invasion/retaliation for Vietnam's ending of China-backed Pol Pot/Khmer Rouge in Cambodia resulted in enormous casualties and a huge loss of face for China - which had mistaken weakened support from a weakened USSR as Vietnam's weakness.
30 years later: TRUMP WAS HERE. Arrangements were made.
Now history may just repeat itself, as China mistakes Bidenpotato's existence as Taiwan's vulnerability.
Will they ever learn?
Hell, a small contingent of Indian troops armed with literal sticks handed a bunch of CCP troops their asses along the Line of Actual Control less than a year ago.
India had been wavering about which side to join when the CCP stupidly made the choice easy. Suddenly, the good folks of India seemed to enjoy the smell of burning Chinese products in the morning...
But that's what drinking your own Kool-Aide does to a government.
A few months later, I seem to recall seeing tears on the faces of CCP soldiers, supposedly as they said goodbye to their families, but probably because they were being sent to one of the harshest environments possible.
The CCP thought they'd just slip some tech and some men here and there along the LAC, and the Indians would be too stupid to call them on their incursions.
There they go again. Underestimating their enemies. Cool, huh?
Those who label words as violence do so with the sole purpose of justifying violence against words.