Quick trick to make useful "predictions"* about reality:

1. Start from the assumption that large organizations can barely play 1D chess, much less 12D chess.

2. Look at verifiable ACTIONS and their obvious consequences, not speculative actions or theoretical rationalizations.

3. If something is obvious to you, and does not depend upon your special experiences, it's probably obvious to the people involved in whatever it is you're trying to understand.

*Served me well so far, with the obvious caveat that forecasting the future is f'ing hard.


Oh, and an extra piece: Try to prioritize being internally consistent in your thinking, as you can actually verify this yourself.

For instance, many conservatives think large centralized bureaucracies are inefficient and cumbersome, but then posit explanations for the world that implicitly assume that the Democrats have the ability to orchestrate the federal government down to 12 decimal places.

Easy to see that both can't be right.

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