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I am not qualified to speculate on what Trump and/or Pence's next moves in politics might be.

However, what I can do is look at the foreign arena to see what might be happening in real life and where to connect these to US politics.

First, let's remember the following countries Trump has visited during his administration (not a complete list):

India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Japan, United Kingdom, Korea (North and South)

You can also add the Kirshner visits to Qatar and Morocco.

Now let's look at what has been happening since the ASTERISK assumed the Presidency:

- Brexit UK is turning to be a disrupting force in European politics. The vast differences in the COVID vaccine rollout between the UK and the EU is causing a backlash within the EU and even the pro-EU UK press has blasted EU officials in its blundering over trying to block exports of the vaccines into the UK.

Rumblings have started about Sweden and even Ireland maybe moving away from the Eurozone.

Even in Scotland, where the would-be-Queen Sturgeon is trying to push for another independence referendum in the hopes that she'll take them into the EU, there is a lot of political infighting with the SNP party that threatens to disrupt the unity to fend off the Unionist forces. It's still early days but I'm keeping a close look at what is happening there.

Eurosceptic feeling are also growing in France, Italy and even Spain.

Over to the Middle East, there's a growing dissatisfaction within Gulf Arab nation over how the Hiden State Dept is handling the Iran issue. Netanyahu is to visit the countries of UAE and Bahrain this week, one of the reasons to present a united front against the Hiden Administration.

India and Saudi Arabia have begun closer ties, to the dissatisfaction of Pakistan.

There seems to be an emerging alliance between Israel and India with UAE/Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, respectively.

The Hiden Administration's foreign policy seems very reactionary - not only going back to the Obama years but even back to the 1970s, during the Camp David days of land-for-peace and the US administrations stringing the Israelis along for domestic political points. They want to act like the old days of START treaties and playing footsie with various terror groups for backdoor politics can resume without much challenge.

The developments between Israel and the Gulf Arabs changes that equation.

In the Pacific, Japan is taking further action to check China's ambitions in the islands, the latest being checking a Chinese ship that was close to one of the islands that Japan claims as one of their own. Japan is now on the verge of spending much more money to upgrade their military in order to counteract the Chinese threat now that there's more uncertainty over whether the US continues their guaranteed security in the Pacific area.

Taken altogether is leading me to guess that it's possible that the traditional U.S. allies are feeling unshackled and are acting as if the US military umbrella no longer exists.

Now let's look back to Trump's visits in those countries I mentioned: did he give them any heads-up that there are going to be events back home that would change the facts on the grounds where they are and to prepare to take more action on their own?

Remember that one of Trump's themes is that the allies must do more for their own security and to not rely on the US umbrella for much longer. Any future security arrangements would be on a transactional basis.

So perhaps with the Sham elections a reality the allies have finally gotten the message and are starting to rethink old geopolitical assumptions and taking action based on what they've learned so far.

So I look to the foreign arena and, being inquisitive, try to see where there may be a connection between that and US politics.

What if the traditional allies are acting as an OUTSIDE force to pressure Congress, while there is an INSIDE force within US politics that is putting an almost equal pressure on Congress?

What would make Congress listen where no other rational actors have been able to?

To me, the 97-3 Senate vote to reaffirm Trump's decision to put the US embassy in Jerusalem was a huge tell. The Senate was acting very defiantly against Trump in the last months of his administration. This was one instance where they defied the Hiden Administration.

Why did that happen?

Why would the Senate support the Israelis over Biden -- even though it's not clear whether Biden had plans to move it back to Tel Aviv?

I just recently shared a column from a Bahraini journalist who lamented that the Arabs don't have the lobby that the Iranians seem to be employing. Perhaps it's a sign that they've been complacent, being protected by the US military umbrella for so long.

Another tell of the reality facing the allies now.

So expect the Arabs to employ more OUTSIDE force in US politics soon.

OUTSIDE and INSIDE may be the emerging themes of the next four years.

END

ADDENDUM

Perhaps some supporting evidence of the changing realities on the ground in the Middle East:

youtube.com/watch?v=N-zs4sBCgL

Sorry about the accent but the end of the video says it all: India is angling to take the responsibility of guarding the Arabian/Persian Gulf trade routes.

Who gets kicked out as a result?

The answer is not hard.

END

@Movietime_Blues This thread was awesome. Your grasp of geopolitical complexities is spot on.

@Movietime_Blues
Excellent analysis. Goes back to Pres Trump visiting these countries and asking “what can the US do to help?” Instead of bossing them around.

@Movietime_Blues Brilliant thread and plenty of food for thought. Thank you

@Movietime_Blues

Outstanding thread!

I wish the majority of Americans would understand our foreign policies. This should be required reading (your thread) in social studies to discuss just that - geopolitical forces at work.

@Movietime_Blues Great thread. Makes more sense than anything else I have heard.

@Movietime_Blues Would muslim brotherhood figure in anywhere? They were quite visible during the previous wretched 8 years of BarryO/Hidin, but remained out of sight during Trump’s presidency, occasionally popping up whenever Ilhan Omar spoke. And they’ve been active behind the scenes for decades.

Great thread! Thanks.

@Christyml7

GCC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE oppose the Muslim Brotherhood. That puts them in contrast to the likes of Turkey under Erdogan.

@Movietime_Blues Agreed! Given that BarryO is so hot for Iran, it causes me to think that MB is very active there as well. Saner countries are working to eliminate them. I fear they are deeply embedded in our country. We had a chance during the holy land trial.

@haithabu

Policies that Trump promoted that benefitted them would be priorities when they lobby Congress.

For example: the F-35s that UAE were supposed to get to defend their airspace.

@haithabu

It should also get the attention of India, Israel, Japan, Australia and other allied nations. They have a role to play, just for the purpose of pursuing their own interests. How and when, I don't know. But it would require them to remind Congress what's at stake.

That's what I mean by OUTSIDE. That would, theoretically, activate the INSIDE to stave off conviction.

@haithabu

My thread was an attempt to explain Trump using foreign affairs, by pointing out the effects his policies are having on the allied nations even today.

I have no clue what the allied countries could do to aid his defense. However, I have to think that some in Congress must be paying attention to what's happening on the world stage.

If Congress were to correct the sham then it may require the help of outside pressure. At least that's my theory.

@Movietime_Blues

Awesome thread. Very illuminating, and opens the mind.

Thank you!

@Movietime_Blues Thank you for taking the time to share this information!

@Movietime_Blues
Yes, The Iranians began ILLEGALLY lobbying HARD in DC around 1986.
Since they had a Nation's stolen assets to hand out DC Politicians AND MEDIA lined up to get paid.
Shutting out the Arab States.

@Movietime_Blues @ThomasWic

My friend who does business in Bahrain has been VERY busy on Zoom calls 😱

@Movietime_Blues very interesting thread. Thank you for the insight.

@Movietime_Blues

Trump gave them THE RATIONALE to finally become full-fledged world powers not required to give in to the demands of the globalist American uniparty.

They were VERY well-paid slaves.

By appearing to be defeated, Trump allows them to tell Biden to shove it.

THEY don't need US anymore, except as an ALLY on equal terms.

@ThomasWic

That's a very interesting take on it. Egypt would be a good example of that. Maybe the new Israel-Arab alliance would address that, in some form or another.

Thanks for the seal of approval, btw.

@ThomasWic @Movietime_Blues

I have NO DOUBT that the Abraham Accordists will spank BidenCo's ass HARD and ship him the sand to pound when they block all attempts at enabling their enemies and breaking their alliances.

New sheriffs are in town. There is no going back.

@haithabu @StevenDouglas @ThomasWic @Movietime_Blues

Exactly why the Arabs went to the Israelis years ago and made peace. They could not trust the wishy-washyness of America.

If anyone had been paying attention and they would realize it has been them doing the heavy lifting in the Middle East for quite some time now.

The GCC is powerful.

@haithabu @StevenDouglas @ThomasWic @Movietime_Blues

Also, these countries are possibly watching this fiasco and they like Trumps style, they like the fact Trump wants them to be independent! They know they’re on their own with this sham administration.

@Movietime_Blues The current emerging alliance in the region is 90 million & with Egypt in it's 200 million. That is far more than enough people to form & support a major power. The USA was 100 million when WW2 began. Biden's state dept will not be be able to slap that around by focusing on 9 million member states at a time, & Il Doofus just gave them massive control over our energy prices while refusing to build 4th gen nuclear power. Biden is pissing into a strong wind with his mouth open.

@Movietime_Blues

Biden is more than a little bit confused about who will have the bit in who's mouth when the structure he is forming meets the one they are building in a serious negotiation.

USA has a bunch of funny money, past glories, "rich" data farmer blackmail scam artists, some patents & an ideology/treaty structure that hog ties our economy

vs.

an indifferent energy exporter in a stabile region with renovated armed forces, real money, & control of several key ports

@Movietime_Blues

The alliance has been in place for a while now.

Now they are beginning to show their teeth

@Movietime_BlueshttpsJohnson's new Chief of Staff appears to have quite a deep state background, Halkuyt
://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/12/anti-cummings-how-dan-rosenfield-became-boris-johnson-s-chief-staff

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