July 10 COVID Tweet by: PLC @Humble_Analysis
July 10
Last night I looked at the Covid mortality curve for each state and grouped them into four categories:

23 states are following a Gompertz function, with deaths peaking early and now declining to near zero.

These are mostly located in the northeast and midwest.

These states are likely past their Covid season.


16 states never had any significant deaths.

These are mostly rural states in the West (plus Hawaii).

Given density, these states are unlikely to ever face an outbreak.


9 states have shown a slow, steady rate of death from Covid, which looks to be ending from the CDC data but it too early to tell.

Finally, three states bear watching: California, Texas, and Arizona.

CDC data would indicate a slow decline but reported deaths are increasing rapidly.

The[y] could be entering their Gompertz phase, they could be importing deaths from Mexico, or it could be backdating.

Final Humble_Analysis

By the way, here's what those graphs look like when you put them on the same scale.

Kinda puts things into perspective, doesn't it?

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